My system is:
Long and medium range
Look at combination of Surfline analysis, and the windy.app (both paid, both good value imo)
This analysis from Surfline is very useful in communicating the uncertainty about the track of weather systems in the UK, as the exact track changes everything. They also do a daily update which can be pretty accurate. (You just need to invert their advice - Sunday looking EPIC!)
Windy has this view that overlays the models onto a single plot, and indicates variance with the delta symbol. High variance means you can probably wait until they start to agree, and probably also ignore the period following the high variance.
A useful medium range thing to look at are the weather models for the local region as they are usually much better than the international ones, taking into account local features.
UKV is good to look at for next day.
Short range
Hopefully Surfline and windy are still in agreement, then check tides and local weather.
On the day, I’ll check UK live feed map 1, and UK observation map 2 (which also has visibility and rain observations which are useful for DW. These also show how weather systems are moving through the UK, and you can see when the wind is starting to build in the West, meaning you may be in luck.
If it’s not looking good, I’ll keep an eye on Wunderground, for live feed, and keep an eye on the surf cams as they are usually the best bet for spotting when the wind has picked up or dropped.