2026 M20 Power Rankings
#20 - #16 – The Wildcards
Gage Schoenherr, Grae Morris, Tituoan “Titties” Galea, Johnny Hagan, Alex Tibbits.
We have an Olympic Silver Medallist (Grae), the man regarded as the best foil athlete (“Titties”), and in Tibby a specimen that has been professionally conditioned for longer than Johnny Hagan has drawn breath. If conditions are wild, Grae and Alex will edge closer to top 10. They’re not long shots—they’re just waiting for the right run across the channel. Gage has a great M2O record, it’s just a question on whether he’s stayed sharp.
#15 - #11 – The mid-channel scaries
Toaura Haumani, Guido Ferrer, Haunui Haumani, Jeffrey Spencer, Thomas Goyard.
40km in, none of the Top 10 will be pleased if one of these names appears on their shoulder.
There’s more Olympic Silver here, around the neck of Thomas Goyard. LeGoy has spent more time on the water than the Kaiwi Channel has spent being wet. The Haumani lads are filling out their frames, but are riding smaller foils than when they weighed 60kg. Jeffrey (the 25yo with the 50yo name) is better known for his winging antics, but can be stupid-fast holding a paddle too. Guido will be hyper-motivated to succeed for Argentina, particularly after the nations shocking 3-0 loss to unsung Cabo Verde in the round of 32 (written before kickoff, but taking a stab in the dark here)…
A good start, the right line through the channel, or one mistake from the frontrunners, and every one of these riders has the ability to finish several places higher than they’re ranked here.
#10 – James Casey
The elder statesman (34) has been off the pace in ’24 and ‘25 but don’t think him any less fierce as when he won the event in 2023. Can he keep up with the Big 3? No. But is he the best downwind foiler in the world still? Probably. If this was a series of events that tested skills over a variety of conditions, wind strengths and distances James would almost certainly come out on top. His love for the sport and for competition comes a distant 2nd to family, and with the arrival of his 3rd child lining up with the completion of Hawaii race season his heart will be elsewhere. His race will finish then he’ll race back home. All the best to James and the First Lady of Foiling.
#9 – Kai Lenny
Rank him outside the Top 5 and you risk egg on your face. One day he’ll turn up having forgotten he entered and finish 4th. But it’s hard to imagine Kai putting down all the other toys to focus on this little ol’ sport of Channel Racing on Foils. The most distracted man in ocean sports is unquestionably talented, but if there’s a forecast of powder in the Rockies he may just fly over in the PJ and do something weird like film triple backflip air reverse combos on his tracked ski-moto. Keep your eye out for the new episode of Life of Kai.
#8 – Finn Spencer
Finn will turn up with an AR22 front wing, and if it holds together he’ll be in the Top 10. He can win the race to the 10km buoy, but not the race to Kaimana. But let’s be honest – he already won when his parents chose not to give him a name like his brother’s - he could’ve been a “Craig”. (I mean, has anyone met a baby Jeffrey, or do they just skip childhood entirely, arrive at 42 with a mortgage, a tucked-in polo, and strong opinions about crypto?)
#7 – Andrew Gibbons
I’m calling a resurgence for the Long-armed Ape. Underwhelming results in 2025 have made him hungry, and joining the design team for a foundation brand has energised him. With access to the Naish skunkworks we can only hope he’s built something with a large performance envelope. How great would it be to see him shoving his massive rig into the final battle around the reefs! Andrew should not be underestimated.
#6 – Perth Standlick
Perth is built for ugly seascapes. The nastier it is, the higher are his chances of winning the whole damn thing. A ferocious competitor, limited only by his inability to train regularly - of the Top 10 Perth has the biggest limitation in the poor training conditions offered up by his local run of Bondi to Maroubra. It’s short, sharky, and extremely inconsistent. But if M2O is nuking, he is a genuine chance of the win. And let me assure you, if you want the awards ceremony to rock into the next day then it’s Perth FTW! Oh man, it would be ridic! Ha!
#5 – Tom Constant
Since his finish in the teens in 2025, the flying Frenchman has achieved podiums in St Tropez and Crozon. Europe’s great hope, we can expect big things from Tom in the 2026 Hawaii season. The dreams of a continent rests on his shoulders – no pressure mate.
#4 – Jarrod Snow
The tall Australian has had some impressive results in a range of conditions in the preceding 6-months. He’s a recent signing for F-One after Edo left a gaping hole in their team-rider budget (source: rumour mill). Fast, skilled, but does he have the fitness that Kaiwi demands? Top 5, certainly. Podium, possibly.
#3 – Edo Tanas
Chasing the 3-peat Edo has fabricated underdog status with an inexplicable move to Slingshot equipment (has anyone even crossed the Kaiwi on a Slingshot?). Perhaps he’ll Edberg it and ride a Momentum painted up as a Hover (I’m sure we all remember Stefan Edberg using an 85 ProStaff 6.0 painted to look like a 95 ProStaff 6.1!! Anybody? – just me then??). Edo is an athlete cut from the same cloth as Rafa Nadal – he beats the water into submission while his rivals rely on such archaic methods as pattern recognition and efficiency.
Edo cannot be written off, but it’s very difficult to believe his income choice, sorry equipment choice, won’t let him down.
#2 – Kane de Wilde
Stretching the tennis parallels, Kane is the Nick Kyrgios of foiling, but with a better attitude. He has the raw talent to beat the best, but knows nothing of gyms. He knows they exist, but he’s entirely confused why anyone would go to one, or what anyone does when they’re there. Yet he continues to turn up and go impossibly fast. He foils more than just about anyone on the planet (which is a training of sorts, right?), and has an innate gift for efficiency and precision. His drive to win is undetermined, but he could do anything if it were important enough.
#1 – Kai Thompson
Enough with the Instagram edits (they’re fun though!) — it’s time to race. Kai’s packed away the GoPro, moved back to his annual Maui office, and is doing what contenders do: putting in the work. The Ironman engine is there, the talent has never been in question, and his downwind language has gone from conversational to fluent. He’s no longer chasing the best in the world. He is the best in the world. There remains only one box left to tick: winning Molokai 2 Oahu. This is the year for Kai. I am not uncertain.
The Chaos Agents
Nick Kapule will be in other lists. He’s won in Sydney against fancied competition, and is fierce, fit, and frothing. Don’t be shocked if he gave the Top 10 a shake.
Josh Ku, the world’s favourite foiler (source: YouTube), has barely been downwinding in 2026, instead choosing the Foil Drive and the Parawing for getting about. So he has no form, but bucketloads of talent. He was a DNS in 2025 and to be a chance of a Top 20 this year all he needs to do is make it through US Customs*.
(*What US Customs are doing in Honolulu is anyone’s guess, but to know for sure we’d need to revisit the Year of our Lord 1898.)
Mala’e McElheny is worth watching. I’m saying 22nd place this year, 15th in 2027, and Top 10 in 2028. Why not.
it’s probably soon too.. someone has been too busy
