For me foiling is part of surfing, an innovation or step-change in equipment that allows me to ride different waves and tap into more of the ocean’s energy. It is still growing quickly as a sport as we refine and improve the gear which in turn allows us to tackle more and different waves and wave energy. Does it have.a fixed shelflife? Does surfing? I guess it does if you allow yourself to plateau and don’t find new challenges to keep you stoked. For me with prone the challenge has allows been to tackle bigger waves and make steeper drops. I don’t see this becoming boring or stale. Where I live in Piha, New Zealand, we have no shortage of swell but it’s not easy to tow (difficuly to launch) so prone is the go-to. We also get solid onshores for days and weeks in Winter so downwind will be the next challenge.
Good addition Matt. Reflecting on my own experiences, I think it’s not cut and dry one box or the other, but frantically ping ponging back and forth between them, then an extreme of one or other eventually is the end of it.
Throwing money at the problem with more gear has been a big (BIG) part of the Anxiety box for me. Trying to get past the struggles, I have tried to isolate the variable by ensuring it’s not the gear – and quite few $000 later have confirmed it’s not, it’s me. So that’s where the coaching idea has come in, if the online video self help vids don’t work, and you’ve hit the wall, then getting help seems like the only way to move forward? At that point, it’s either settle into a groove where you become content with what you’ve got but stop advancing … or quit and move on to a new learning progression.
That video is hilarious. I learned surf in my 20s along with nearly everyone around here (have to be able to drive and $ to get to the beach). A bunch of permanent semi kooks! Many of whom now kite and wing and foil etc.
Foilsurfnz: welcome! I have a Canadian surf buddy who lives in Piha, he’s not yet foil curious no matter how hard I push him. Hopefully he sees you and gets a fire lit! But I am guessing it won’t happen, partially because your golden moments are likely when no one else is around. That’s the greatest thing about foiling, everyone else’s garbage is our feast.
Yes definitely bouncing between them, with a few fleeting flow state moments in the middle. And totally agree, a coach or some 3rd party accountability is a great way. Rather than relying on your own mind, you can build a system that keeps the momentum when your interest flags. As they say, you need to earn it.
Regarding surfing - this is a personal failing, never progressing beyond competent beginner (“Hawaiian”).
Some interesting comments in this other thread around frustrations
This specifically, relevant to the 3 year shelf life element:
This is the truth for probably the bulk of foiling (surfers live in cities or popular surf areas, both have above problem), and eventually things may go the way of banning foils in busy lineups (this decision is hanging in the balance in many regions).
Pessimistic take would be that a bans would pull up the drawbridge behind us in terms of accessibility for new riders and so we reach peak prone foiling for a few years, plateauing sooner than we’d have expected due to lack of accessible spots. Most of the good spots I know of are prime beginner surf locations, and the two don’t really mix.
All of this happened with longboarding (the skateboard type). I was deeply involved in this and it felt nearly exactly the same as foiling does now, it had a big push in the late 2000’s, epic growth, new gear etc and then largely ran out of steam. For me it was just too hard on the body and got boring, same as kiting in early 2000’s. However downhill skateboarding almost 10 years to the day is having a minor resurgence with new world series. What I find really interesting is that in the slower years, the performance and skill level continued to increase, probably even accelerated. The level is barely conceivable to when I left it.
Another parallel is snowboarding smart alecs of the 80s, which has had years of ebbing and flowing alongside skiing, only across decades does it look to have progressed.
My bet here is that we are just at the early stage of a few decades of innovation, with some slower years at some stage before going properly mainstream after this sudden surge in innovation as the dust settles.
We are the green part of the Early Market, with the Chasm ahead, and if we fail to make the jump, go back into relative obscurity for another cycle before going truly “mainstream”. I imagine foiling will genuinely benefit the most from the Olympic windsurfing turning to foiling, validating the whole lot of us alongside to varying degrees.
What happens if not is a probable slow down due to hitting the limits of most surf spots. Maybe the most interesting thing is that foiling opens surfing up to suboptimal surf regions, rather than transforms surfing in existing surf areas.
*sorry for essay and typos
Love the stoke in the video.
The “Gartner Hype Cycle” is used in tech markets - probably overlays well on various forms of foiling too… Gartner Hype Cycle Research Methodology | Gartner
That is a good chart, although I think it’s a bit different for different people. For me, replace Anxiety with Injuries and the flow channel is ever narrower as you go up the curve…
I would say that boredom also leads to new gear 
I think the shelf life depends a lot on the “why“ behind your foiling.
If you foil because you crave the feeling of learning something new and progressing then maybe yes it does have a shelf life. But that applies to anything in life.
If you foil just for the sake of foiling, being part of the environment, and just expressing your creativity then maybe there is no shelf life.
I hope to foil long enough to find true mastery in this art form.
That’s a really thought provoking and informative essay Matt, good on you. My suspicion is we are in the chasm. My anecdotal evidence: 1) the online discussions have dried up, running out of new stoking stuff to talk about. Seems it’s the same 10-20 people on all the forums, new ones pop up and have some action for a while, then crickets again. 2) locally the crazy stoked initial adopters are all still frothing, but lately there’s very few newbs or prospects…winging is still growing, but surf/sup has “stabilized”. 3) used gear is getting harder to sell. whether the as-new last year edition at 40% off or the beat up older edition starter gear for cheap. Seems like 2 or 3 brands have a recognizable name to cut through the noise, below that it’s a challenge. The newbies desperate to get into it are few and far between, which is the bottom end of the market … without that base of the pyramid buying the leftovers, upgrading becomes an expensive option.
I saw a similar thing happen in kiting, we had a local crew that was going off for a while there … then it kinda faded (and then winging killed it).
Anyways, for my own progression and shelf life: I have been efoiling way more than I should be! But on the right day it’s been mind blowing re stoking. After 6 months of procrastinating, I finally tried out my Lift set up prone, and it was a WOW HOLY CRAP moment…instant pump capabilities, easy 3 for 1s, suddenly paddling is fun again. I got my mojo back. So there you go, new gear re-ignites the fire, at least for a while, and so the cycle continues.
Thanks for the comments! I wonder of the 3 which are leading indicators. I imagine the poor used market is a pretty serious issue as it will lead to higher risk of purchasing new gear that doesn’t work for you. Does seem like lots of gear going heavily discounted, maybe just a winter slow-down.
My take would be that for foiling to have any real adoption it would need to appeal to a younger market. It appears the demographic of foilers is heavily skewed to 30+ with kids. Nearly all of the videos are filmed by mum with baby in hand 
Not that I particularly want foiling to blow up with the kids, that will bring its own problems, but I imagine foiling is near saturation with the current market, and a healthy adoption rate is important for gear innovation!
I imagine with the big brands eg port Cabrinha/North entering the market properly, things may get increasingly competitive.
Interestingly there is probably never a better time to get into it. A decent used foil setup is approaching £1000 locally, with a board. This lowers the barrier to somewhat reasonable for a hobby, and the performance is less likely to be made redundant with a new release, so a lower risk. I’ve helped a few people get into it and with a board and mast, and borrowing a few plane setups they’ve got going for £500. Interestingly as surfers with guidance their progression has been really rapid.
Edit:
Something that occurred to me is that there are two dimensions, individual and the industry
On the shelf life of an individuals enjoyment of foiling, I think there are many years because there are many facets of the sport and they are generally pretty new and very difficult.
On the industry, which primarily was what I was waxing on about, I think will be as cyclical as any other new sport that eventually reaches some steady growth. Interesting because the innovation is leading to innovation.