Hello,
I’ve been thinking quite a lot about the economics of SUP downwind recently, especially while watching the races in Hawaii.
I’m honestly surprised by how much some brands seem to invest in the sport compared with the size of the actual market.
By “investment”, I mean developing new foils and boards, sending riders to competitions around the world, organising photoshoots, producing content and, in some cases, actually paying professional riders.
All of that for what seems to be an extremely small and already saturated market.
This made me wonder: is SUP downwind actually a profitable market by itself, or is it simply the Formula 1 of foiling — a technological showcase used to develop and promote products that will eventually be sold to a much wider parawing, surf foil or wingfoil audience?
A very small potential customer base
The first issue is that paddle downwind requires two things that rarely come together: a lot of disposable income (if you’re buying the new, latest gear) and a lot of free time.
A complete modern foil setup with two or three front wings can easily cost €5,000 or more. Add a board, paddle and potentially several setups (parawing, surf…), and realistically this is a sport for people with a fairly comfortable income.
But people with well-paid jobs often also have demanding schedules.
And downwind is incredibly time-consuming.
With wingfoil, you can sometimes fit a decent session into a long lunch break or go out for an hour after work. With downwind, you need to organise the forecast, the route, the cars, the shuttle and the people. You can spend several hours organising everything for only a few dozen minutes on the water.
More importantly, progression requires a lot of water time.
Anyone who thinks they will learn paddle downwind by doing one or two Saturday-afternoon sessions per month is probably going to have a difficult surprise. At least at the beginning, it almost needs to become your main sport. You have to sacrifice some wingfoil or parawing sessions and go downwinding as often as possible.
Less water time means slower progression, more failed starts, more frustrating runs and eventually a high chance of giving up.
So the potential customer (again for new gear) seems to be someone who has:
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enough money to buy very expensive equipment;
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enough free time and flexibility to organise regular shuttles;
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enough motivation to make downwind their main sport;
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and enough physical ability to handle the learning curve. (exit most of retired people)
That is a very small percentage of the population.
I am lucky enough to have both good incomes and enough control over our schedules to practise regularly. But we are probably part of a very narrow demographic.
Who is actually paying retail price?
Around me, almost nobody who is seriously involved in SUP downwind pays full retail price.
Most people either have an ambassador deal, a relationship with a shop, a brand deal or some other way of getting 30%, 40% or sometimes 50% off. Some receive equipment for free.
I can only think of two people who pay something relatively close to the normal price: me and a friend (who is also lucky enough to have strong income and lot a free time)
Even then, I generally try to get 15–20% off, sometimes 30%, or mix new and second-hand equipment to keep the total cost reasonable.
I have no problem paying to practise my sport. But losing 40–50% when reselling a one-year-old foil is difficult to accept, especially when the same thing happens with the board, the parawing and the rest of the equipment.
Losing 20–30% feels more reasonable and allows us to change equipment more regularly.
Staying around a 15–20% discount is also partly a choice. Once you start spending €5,000 or more on a foil setup, that level of discount is not particularly difficult to negotiate. But I don’t necessarily want to become indebted to a brand or shop. I don’t want to feel required to produce videos, promote products, lend my equipment or provide some other service in exchange for a bigger discount.
From what I see, that is often what is needed to move beyond 30% off, unless you are personally close to a shop owner and can buy close to cost price.
Of course, even a 40% discount does not necessarily mean the chain (brand, distributor, shop) is losing money. But the brand is still probably earning much less than it would from a normal retail customer.
This leaves me wondering how many genuinely profitable customers exist in SUP downwind.
Downwind is also a very connected community
Downwind naturally creates a small community of experienced and committed riders. You organise shuttles together, spend time in cars together and depend on other people to make sessions possible. You quickly meet most of the active riders in your area.
That is different from wingfoil, which can be a much more individual activity. You arrive at the beach, rig your equipment, ride for an hour and go home.
Thus; people are probably more aware of ambassador programmes, shop discounts and brand deals. When everyone around you is receiving some kind of discount, paying full retail price starts to feel strange.
It also seems that downwind customers usually want one of two things: the brand they already have a strong deal with or whatever is currently considered the absolute best-performing foil.
This makes it difficult for brands that are producing very good equipment but are not clearly seen as number one.
Patrik is an interesting example. I have no doubt that their downwind foils are good. Thomas Goyard is designing and riding them, and he is clearly capable of finishing among the top riders in the world.
But will those foils actually sell? (They are not out yet)
Being somewhere in the top 20 proves that the equipment works, but it may not create enough worldwide recognition to convince people to leave a brand where they already have a discount or buy the product instead of the current benchmark.
So what is the value for a brand like Patrik in sending a rider to these races?
The same question could be asked about AFS, Lift and several other brands. What is the wider business case for continuing to develop specialised paddle-downwind equipment?
With AFS, for example, there are definitely some riders who love the original Ultra. But from the outside, the Ultra range appears far less successful than products such as the Silk, Enduro or Silk V2.
Why continue investing in downwind products without putting enough resources behind them to become a clear market leader?
Do professional riders actually sell equipment?
Another question is the value of individual riders.
In my opinion, there are very few foil riders whose name alone can genuinely sell a significant amount of equipment.
In paddle downwind, Kane de Wilde is probably the clearest example. In surf foil, the Bennetts also have that kind of influence. Interestingly, I think a well-known designer such as Laurent Borgna can also attract customers because people trust his design philosophy.
But outside a very small number of names, does finishing 10th, 15th or 20th at a major downwind race actually create enough sales to justify the expense?
Maybe it does, but I would be interested to understand how brands measure that return.
Has parawing damaged paddle downwind?
Parawing has probably made the situation even more complicated.
Around me, many people who struggled with paddle downwind moved to parawing and will probably never return to the paddle.
When someone asks me how to start downwinding, I’m often the first person to recommend starting with a parawing. It is simply more accessible.
But I find it difficult to imagine many people making the opposite transition. Going from a 6’0 parawing board to an 8’4 paddle board, returning to a larger foil, dealing with failed take-offs and accepting entire runs where you may struggle to get onto foil is not especially attractive.
There is also a major difference between doing short glides with the parawing still in your hands and genuinely connecting bumps for a long distance with no backup.
A lot of parawingers around me do relatively short glides and keep the wing ready to deploy. Very few regularly pack the wing and glide for several kilometres.
Paddle downwind exposes every mistake. If you lose the foil, taking off again can be extremely difficult and costly in terms of distance and energy. Despite being seen as similar, it is not really the same sport ; and only those who paddles know!
So are new people still entering paddle downwind, or are most potential beginners now choosing parawing instead?
Or is parawing actually saving the downwind foil market?
There is another possibility: maybe parawing is exactly what allows brands to continue selling high-performance downwind foils.
Personally, when I use a parawing, I’m not necessarily looking for an aspect-ratio-13 foil. At 95 kg, I would rather use something around AR 9–11, such as a Nomad 700/830 or an Atlas 790, and carve as hard as possible.
But around me, many parawingers use AR 12–13 downwind foils because they need the extra glide and efficiency. They would struggle much more with an AR 9 foil.
That is not a criticism or a universal rule, just a trend I observe locally.
Interestingly, the only people I personally know who recently bought the very latest high-end downwind (KT Apex/Solus, F4 SR…) equipment are parawingers. Objectively, they may not need that level of performance, but they enjoy owning and riding the best equipment — and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.
Perhaps the real customers for “downwind” foils are therefore no longer paddle downwind riders.
To summarise:
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Brands appear to be investing significant money in SUP downwind.
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The number of active participants seems extremely small because the sport requires so much time, organisation and commitment.
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The number of participants who can afford to buy the latest equipment at close to retail price is even smaller.
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A large proportion of committed riders seem to receive discounts that may still be profitable for the brand, but probably generate limited margins.
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Parawing appears to be attracting many people who might previously have tried paddle downwind.
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At the same time, parawingers may now be the main buyers of high-aspect-ratio downwind foils.
So what is the actual business model?
Is paddle downwind the Formula 1 of foiling: a small, expensive technological showcase that drives development and brand image, while the real sales happen in parawing, surf foil and wingfoil?
What does a brand need to do to genuinely succeed in the downwind market? Does it need the best-performing foil, a superstar rider, a famous designer, an aggressive ambassador programme, or all of those things?
Is paddle downwind already declining because new riders are moving directly to parawing?
And is this mainly a European situation? Perhaps the market and the percentage of people paying retail price are completely different in Hawaii, the US or Australia.
I’m genuinely interested in hearing from yout thoughts.
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