Some updated random e-thoughts.
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The future is probably electric. I had a prone session in perfect foil waves, but required an inshore chip in and long pump out to link into the better waves, but heart rate ramps up so you don’t turn, or you ride a big foil that you can’t turn. The perfect foil wave will almost always require some chip in assistance, as it will be too slow and weak to break. Electric chips will be the future.
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A buddy got a FD and MASSIVELY improved in the 2 months that he has had it. Full top to bottom rail to rail surfing. The progression was extremely quick. The one key insight - never bothered to learn to e-foil motor, ONLY used it to chip early into unbroken waves. I think if you are a FD user and you still suck, it is because you are motoring around too much. This is a fail (see this thread for why you still can’t turn on FD). The future of FD is to use the FD only as a paddle assist to catch waves, and spend as little time on motor as possible. This prolongs the battery, keeps the lineup and priority clearer, less buzz noise from motors, less awkward, etc
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Failing efoil companies: I thought this video cataloguing all the bankrupt efoil and jetboard companies was somewhat interesting. One common theme - the owners didn’t know much about nor care about the industry they were selling into. This makes me think that the likes of FD and other brands that are clearly nerding out on the user feedback and building excellent products will survive. The nuance that goes into making FD a great product is insane. (same for Zerotow, though it is not being pushed as hard commercially, thankfully I guess). Being almost unreasonably product and user oriented is the only way!
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AMP - A peek at what I guess is trending towards production ready AMP board. I personally think this might be the future for high performance surfing as I think the ultimate value is chipping in (see point 2, it’s about chipping into waves, not motoring around like a kook)
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Trench boards have effectively created a standard around which other products will fit into (who would buy a Manta if it’s too wide to fit into the trenches? I guess it’s too wide?). Every single FD user I’ve seen has swapped over with varying happiness, the main issue is the box can’t go forward enough.
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Tow boogie remains the wild card. It is obviously the closest thing to tow foiling, and tow foiling is obviously “the best”. Small light board, small foil, maximum foil pleasure. I’ve just got around to first runs on my DIY version. This thing is rad. Primary issue is that they are currently limited to relatively calm flat conditions, but I see that as small issues to improve on. I see huge IP value in the follow me mode of Zerotow. I also see complex legal stuff around using one in most countries (pretty obviously motorised, as opposed to a FD setup which just looks probably motorised).
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Chinese made (I mean if things stay much the same) versions of these will obviously start finding their way to the market. For example a random foil drive. I think it is much better to support the brands building the innovation as they will have a much stronger sense of what the user problems are, and support their customers directly, but eventually once the final form factor is settled and products stop innovating, it really won’t take long for Chinese products to catch up and win the market. You can get a very crude but probably viable tow boogie motor set for $1500. This same company makes very good electronics, so not to be sniffed at! (note the price point, this looks like a bigger battery and motor setup than a FD max pro)
As a comparison, these products seemed to have ended up winning the e-skate market with a very responsive mixture of D2C, fast iteration and actual customer sensitivity (point 3 above).
As said, random thoughts. I have no insider knowledge. To me, first prize is a magical someone who lives at the backline and appears and tows you into waves whenever you need a wave, and second prize is an electronic version of that.